Consensus Forecast

A consensus forecast is the central estimate of what an upcoming statistic will show, compiled from a survey of economists at banks and research houses. The data provider collects the individual forecasts, publishes their median or mean, and that single number is what an economic calendar prints beside the release as the expected figure. It is a reference point rather than a forecast with standing of its own. The gap between the published figure and the consensus is what commentary calls a beat or a miss, so the label depends entirely on whose survey the calendar used: providers poll different panels, close the survey at different times, and can print different consensus numbers for the same release. Some also show the range of individual forecasts, which says more about how uncertain the panel was than the midpoint does.