Dot Plot

The dot plot is a chart published four times a year alongside the US Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections. Each dot marks where one FOMC participant expects the federal funds rate to sit at the end of the current year, the following two years and over the longer run. Participants are anonymous, so the chart conveys the distribution of views inside the committee rather than any individual's forecast. Markets read the dot plot as a guide to the likely path of US interest rates, comparing the median dot against futures pricing. A cluster of dots shifting higher or lower between releases can move the dollar even when the accompanying rate decision matches expectations. The dots are projections, not commitments, and Fed officials routinely stress that they change with incoming data.