Nowcast

A nowcast is a model estimate of a statistic for a period that has already happened but has not yet been published. Output for the current quarter is the standard case: the model takes the monthly and weekly indicators arriving during the quarter and maps them onto the quantity the statistical agency will eventually report, updating each time a new input lands. A nowcast is therefore neither a forecast nor a measurement. Its inputs are real data about the period, but the output remains a model's estimate of a number that does not exist yet, and it moves when an input surprises the model rather than because the economy changed that day. Several central banks and research groups publish nowcasts together with their methodology and revision history, which is what allows their past accuracy to be examined rather than assumed.