Expectancy

Gestão de Risco

The average expected profit or loss per trade, combining win rate and average win/loss size into one measure of whether a strategy has an edge.

Expectancy is the average amount a trader can expect to win or lose per trade over the long run, combining win rate with average win size and average loss size into a single number. A positive expectancy means the strategy is profitable on average, even if any individual trade is a coin flip; a negative expectancy means it will lose money over enough trades no matter how it feels in the short term. Expectancy is typically calculated as (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss), making it one of the clearest single measures of whether a trading system actually has an edge.

Termos relacionados

Win Rate →Risk-Reward Ratio →Profit Factor →

Mais em Gestão de Risco

Stop-Loss Take-Profit Drawdown Margin Call Negative Balance Protection Position Sizing Risk-Reward Ratio Win Rate Profit Factor Sharpe Ratio Value at Risk (VaR)Kelly Criterion

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