Black Swan Event

A black swan event is an extremely rare, largely unpredictable occurrence with severe market consequences — such as a sudden currency depegging or an unexpected geopolitical shock — that standard risk models fail to anticipate. In leveraged trading, a black swan can cause a price gap so severe that a stop-loss doesn't protect against the full loss, and even negative balance protection exists specifically to guard against this scenario. Because black swans are by definition unpredictable, risk management for them focuses on structural safeguards (like leverage limits and negative balance protection) rather than on trying to forecast the specific event.